OMAHA (DTN) -- Fertilizers were exempt from various tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump in 2025, but those levies did appear to have a negative effect on nutrient imports. After the tariffs were first announced in April 2025, U.S. fertilizer imports in the second half of the year decreased drastically, according to an economist with The Fertilizer Institute (TFI).

While the U.S. Supreme Court rejected most tariffs in a ruling last week, President Trump has introduced more tariffs. There is much uncertainty about these tariffs and their possible effects on fertilizer.

U.S. FERTILIZER IMPORTS FALL DURING 2025

In a webinar titled "Navigating 2026: The Changing Landscape of the Fertilizer Market," TFI staffers discussed what the fertilizer industry saw in 2025 and what could happen in 2026.

The U.S. fertilizer market is a mixture of both domestic production and imports from foreign countries, according to Veronica Nigh, TFI chief economist. Apart from potash, nitrogen and phosphorus are a mixture of home-grown nutrients and imports.

Nigh reported that nitrogen imports have remained steady over the last two years. The U.S. imported 5.8 million short tons of nitrogen fertilizer in both 2024 and 2025.

The U.S. saw imports of potash decline slightly, about 9%, from 2024 to 2025. About 8.7 million short tons were imported in 2025, she said.

Phosphorus fertilizer imports, however, fell dramatically in 2025, dropping 41% compared to the previous year. Phosphorus imports have now fallen to under 1 million short tons.

Nigh said breaking fertilizer imports out on a calendar basis reveals some interesting data.

Imports of all three major fertilizers (nitrogen, phosphorus and potash) declined noticeably after April 2025. The International Emergency Economics Powers Act (IEEPA) border security and fentanyl tariffs went into effect in February and March. IEEPA reciprocal tariffs went into effect from April to November.

Imported fertilizer, however, was an exempted item from the various tariffs in 2025, Nigh said. But there does appear to be a connection to the announcement of tariffs and the amount of nutrient imports into the U.S., she said.

The normal nutrient import pattern would be some shipments made at the beginning of the year, then in midyear, there would be a lull, and some additional imports would be made later in the year. This was not the pattern seen in 2025, she said.

Nigh said a recent North Dakota State University study of the tariffs and U.S. fertilizer imports concluded that the effect of the tariffs went beyond the tariffs themselves. It was probably the uncertainty that came with the tariffs that affected the slowing rate of nutrient imports into the U.S. in the second half of 2025, she said.

"We just didn't see (imports) building in 2025, and now this is where we find ourselves as we entered 2026," Nigh said.

GREAT UNCERTAINTY WITH NEW SECTION 122 TARIFFS

There is even more tariff uncertainty as the U.S. Supreme Court struck them down last week.

Ryan Bowley, TFI vice-president, government affairs, said President Trump issued Section 122 tariffs the same day as the other tariffs were ruled illegal. These tariffs are intended to stabilize exchange rates, and the rate is 10% or 15%.

The Section 122 tariffs can stay in place for 150 days, which would mean they would be in effect until July 24. Congress will need to have a vote for these tariffs to continue, Bowley said.

In the Senate, it will take 60 votes for the continuation of the tariffs. If that doesn't happen, the tariffs will go away.

"It remains to be seen what happens with Congress," Bowley said. "There also could be legal challenges, as well."

The various exemptions to tariffs, including fertilizers, are expected to be the same as the Section 122 tariffs. They look to be like the IEEPA tariffs, and TFI is waiting for more information on this, he said.

Bowley said there is much uncertainty at the current time. Things can change quickly, and most likely all of this will continue to change, he added.

SEVERAL FACTORS WILL AFFECT NUTRIENT SUPPLY IN 2026

Nigh said there were several supply issues in 2026 that will have a direct impact on the global fertilizer market.

Russia is one of the three main suppliers of potash fertilizer, along with Canada and Belarus. Nigh said it will be important to see if Russia is exempt in the new Section 122 tariffs, as it was in the IEPPA tariffs.

Because of modest agricultural production in the nation, Russia has a significant exportable supply of fertilizer. They are the only country to be an exporter of all three major fertilizers.

"When Russia moves, the market will move, and it will move in a significant way," Nigh said.

Another country to watch closely in 2026 in the global fertilizer market is India. The country is a significant agricultural producer and is the second-largest nutrient consumer in the world behind China.

Nigh said India purchased twice as much urea in 2025 as it did in 2024. India's DAP purchases in 2026 could top their nutrient buys in 2025. Urea purchases in 2026 could be slightly less in 2026, she said.

Overall, India's fertilizer purchases in 2026 will largely be in line with its purchases last year. Demand pressure from India will still be in the world market in 2026, Nigh said.

Brazil is another country that will influence the global fertilizer market, considering that it imports about 92% of its fertilizer needs. The International Fertilizer Association (IFA) reported that in 2024, Brazil passed the U.S. as the No. 3 largest consumer of fertilizer in the world, at 10% of global fertilizer consumption.

"Fertilizer demand in Brazil continues to increase," Nigh said. "They plant about 55.8 million acres and have added 10 million in additional acres."

A wildcard in 2026 could be the geopolitical challenge between the U.S. and Iran. Roughly 8% of global exports of urea come from Iran, she said.

Iran is a significant player in that region of the world, and a conflict between the U.S. and Iran "could get messy," Nigh said.

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

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